07 March 2008

Is Venezuela Going to Invade Colombia?

A summit of Latin American leaders has resulted in an accord between Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who had blamed the United States for the crisis as he sent tanks to the border with Colombia, joined in shaking Uribe's hand and applauded loudly and smiled.

If it was this easy to resolve, why send troops to the border so quickly?  Maybe it's my suspicious nature, but I don't trust Chavez to abide by this.  It's too drastic a turnaround from his recent rhetoric and out of character.  Look for some new excuse for Chavez to actually send in his troops.  And if/when it happens... remember where you heard it first.

Posted by: Stashiu3 at 20:54:00 | Comments (6) | Add Comment
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1 I really doubt he'd invade, even if he did, South American wars in the modern era tend to be glorified slapfights by war standards, as most of the regimes have a shaky grip on power to begin with, sending troops that would otherwise be used to maintain stability out to fight is risky.  Plus Chavez knows we'd just send over a force and stomp the little Commie punk's military ourselves.

Posted by: doubleplusundead at 07 March 2008@21:21:56 (68v+0)

2

Just remember where you heard it first, lol.  It's just so out of character for him that I began to wonder what his motives were.  As far as what he knows... Boosh is da debil!  I wouldn't place a lot of confidence in his reasoning ability.

Also, I don't know if we would send troops.  I'd like to think so, but getting involved in combat operations in South America while we're still having to work so hard in Iraq and Afghanistan might be tricky.  Never mind the political fallout now that President Bush has endorsed John McCain.  It would be handing a huge propaganda point to the Democrats.

It's certainly not a given at this point, and I'd bet that Chavez is aware of that.  Trusting in his sincerity is just not something I'm prepared to do yet ever.

Posted by: Stashiu3 at 07 March 2008@21:50:10 (Q5ggV)

3 Eh, he's playing a game.  I think this is actually aimed specifically at the US.  The US is the perfect entity to demagogue and blame for problems and failed systems.  Chavez can blame the US for problems in Venezuela to mollify those who are poor and support him, and if he can waggle his dick and thumb his nose at the US, it plays well with that base.

Posted by: doubleplusundead at 07 March 2008@23:46:09 (68v+0)

4 True enough as far as it goes, but he could (and does) do all that without moving troops.  That's what started my wondering, but we'll see.  If he hasn't done something one way or another within two weeks, it's a head-game.  I'm thinking he'll make a move though, probably within a week.

Posted by: Stashiu3 at 07 March 2008@23:55:37 (Q5ggV)

5 Eh, I'm leaning toward thinking he's just playing politics.  I don't think the Colombians are gonna cave, and they know the US is gonna back them if SHTF.  Plus Chavez isn't in a great position to actually do something like a military action, given that he's got a lot of trouble at home.

Posted by: doubleplusundead at 08 March 2008@00:11:18 (68v+0)

6

Maybe so and you're right about the Colombians... they won't cave to Chavez or FARC.  The position Chavez is in at home is also a powerful reason for him to direct attention somewhere else and try to inspire support from the people through nationalism.

I still don't trust the fat SOB.

Posted by: Stashiu3 at 08 March 2008@00:49:12 (Q5ggV)

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